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zigzagman		Posted: Saturday, November 01, 2008 5:07:18 PM
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 8/14/2008 Posts: 314 Location: Memphis		This week is going to be an interesting one to say the least. The Presidential Election is Tuesday, and we have a full week of Economic Reports due out on the Economic Calendar and Q3 Earnings from quite a few companies which are listed in the following article. Click on this link to read the entire article "Market Insider-The Week Ahead": http://www.cnbc.com/id/27479696 This article is also an interesting read: "Next Week: Big Election, Economic Direction": http://www.cnbc.com/id/27486253 Here are all of the reports due out on this week's Economic Calendar: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html The big one this week will be the Employment Situation Report for October due out at 8:30am ET on Friday, but there are eight other potentially market moving reports due out this week. Happy Trading, zz www.stock-market-lessons.com
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zigzagman		Posted: Saturday, November 22, 2008 7:57:21 PM
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 8/14/2008 Posts: 314 Location: Memphis		The Week Ahead: Settling Back In After the 'Geithner Rally': http://www.cnbc.com/id/27848124 http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2141912220081122?rpc=44&pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true www.stock-market-lessons.com
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zigzagman		Posted: Sunday, December 14, 2008 3:26:44 PM
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 8/14/2008 Posts: 314 Location: Memphis		Market Insider: The Week Ahead: 12/15/08-12/19/08 Stocks could chug higher if investors are comfortable with the status of the auto industry bail out and the Fed does not makes any surprise moves when it meets early in the week. The Fed is expected to trim its target Fed funds rate by a half point, trimming it to a half percent, at the end of a two-day meeting Tuesday afternoon. There is a batch of fresh data on production, housing and inflation and fourth quarter earnings from major brokers—Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Traders have been expecting the market to move higher in a December "Santa" rally but concerns about the auto industry stalled its progress. On Friday, the Bush Administration indicated it could provide emergency funds to the industry after Congress failed to craft a rescue. That soothed investor concerns that General Motors would soon file bankruptcy, setting off a string of cascading bankruptcies and massive job losses. "The market gets more constructive, the more answers we get," said Art Hogan, managing director at Jefferies. "If we get an answer on Detroit, I think the market gets more constructive." "Economic news was as bad as it gets last week, and the market trades higher. It's not that bad news is good new, it's just that it's not getting the bad reaction it was getting," said Hogan. Hogan said he does not expect the broker earnings to surprise the market in the coming week. Bad news is already priced in to their shares. Robert Doll, vice chairman of BlackRock, also commented on the trend that's catching investors' attention. "I think we have to be impressed that the market continues to generally shrug off the bad news," he said in an interview on CNBC's "Closing Bell." "October 10 was the first important low ... We're higher today than we were at the lows of October 10. I think we've broken the downside, and now we're moving side ways. We build a base and digest just how bad this recession is going to be," he said. One big piece of news the market was able to fend off late in the week was the revelation that Bernard Madoff, a well regarded asset manager with a long record in the industry, was accused of defrauding investors in a massive "ponzi" scheme. The market also dismissed more bad jobs data that showed the biggest jump in jobless claims in 26 years. "We're in this period where we think there will be bad news. There will be plenty of it. Can we digest it? That will be the question for the markets," said Doll. Stocks finished the week virtually unchanged after its usual volatile swings. The Dow was down 5.74 points, or 0.07 percent at 8629.68. The S&P 500 was up 3.66 points, or 0.4 percent at 879.73. But the Nasdaq was the star, with a 2 percent increase to 1540.72 Econorama In the coming week, there's a relatively heavy calendar of data as well as the Fed meeting. "You're going to have declining production, further lows in housing numbers, and industrial production is going to be negative. Headline CPI will be negative," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. He also expects the Fed to cut by a half point and make fairly dovish statements when it releases its interest rate move. "I don't know how you forecast a consensus for words," he said of the highly anticipated Fed statement. "That things are pretty bad, that's what I think they're going to get at, and they're taking the situation seriously. We know it's a recession. They don't have to reinforce it." There is some housing data in the National Association of Home Builders survey, expected Monday and housing starts Tuesday. New inflation data comes with the Consumer Price Index Tuesday. On Monday, industrial production is released, as is the Empire State manufacturing survey and the Treasury's TIC data on capital flows. LaVorgna expects the news to continue to be bad. His forecast for fourth quarter GDP is negative 4.5 percent and it's not much better for the first quarter. But he said that the auto industry's expected rescue would be a reprieve for the economy. "I think a lot of bad news is priced in. I think the forecast we laid out is being priced into the market... We'll have a real bad first half, then some improvement. I'm encouraged we're able to hold the lows in equities and we're seeing some improvement in money markets," said LaVorgna. Buying in Treasurys in the past week pushed yields lower. In fact, some panicked buying pushed some short-term T-bill yields into negative territory in a rare market event. In longer duration issues, the 10-year fell to a yield of 2.590 percent, and the two-year's yield fell to 0.785 percent. LaVorgna said the short-end of the Treasury market has priced in "depression," but he was encouraged by that panicky move in yields. "You are seeing agencies' spreads coming in. You're seeing Libor in absolute terms ... If you look at dealer commercial paper, that's kind of following the same pattern ... You're seeing money markets thaw a little bit. That makes me a little more confident that we're going to see the recession that we've been expecting," not something worse, he said. LaVorgna said the short-end of the Treasury market has priced in "depression," but he was encouraged by that move. "You are seeing agencies' spreads coming in. You're seeing Libor in absolute terms ... If you look at dealer commercial paper, that's kind of following the same pattern...You're seeing money markets thaw a little bit. That makes me a little more confident that we're going to see the recession that we've been expecting," not something worse, he said. Smith Breeden's John Sprow, a specialist in mortgage securities, said there's been some improvement in mortgage in the past week that's been encouraging to investors. In fact, in the past week banks were offering some of the lowest rates in years. " "It helps in that little niche of the world which is the conforming mortgage markets, but clearly we have large and larger issues to deal with," said Sprow. Oil Drill The dollar fell 4.91 percent against the euro in the past week, its third straight week of decline. It was down 2 percent against the yen. As the dollar fell, commodities moved higher, including oil. Nymex crude rose $5.47 per barrel for the week, or 13 percent to $46.28, its biggest weekly gain since June 6. OPEC meets in Algeria on Wednesday, and non-member Russia will be joining them. "I think they're going to coordinate a cut with Russia," said John Kilduff, senior vice president at M.F. Global. "Everybody will cut too. They've been complying with the last round of cuts." "They've informed Asian buyers in particular to look for lower supplies in January," said Kilduff. "They've already foreshadowed that there'll be less supply in January. I think prices will be under some pressure through the end of the year, but whatever the low is in December will be the low." Kilduff, a CNBC contributor, said he thinks oil could stabilize around $50 a barrel but could take a potential run at $60 in the first quarter. Earnings Central On the earnings calendar in the week ahead are Goldman Sachs [GS], which is expected to report a $3.50 per share loss Tuesday, and Morgan Stanley [MS], seen reporting $0.37 per share loss Wednesday. On Tuesday, Best Buy [BBY], Hovnanian Enterprises [HOV] and Adobe Systems [ADBE] report. Nike [NKE] reports after the bell Wednesday. FedEx [FDX], Pier One [PIR] and Rite Aid [RAD] report Thursday morning. On Thursday afternoon, Oracle [ORCL], Palm [PALM] and Research in Motion [RIMM] report. http://www.cnbc.com/id/28200973 www.stock-market-lessons.com
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zigzagman		Posted: Saturday, December 20, 2008 4:44:37 PM
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 8/14/2008 Posts: 314 Location: Memphis		Weekly Recap - Week ending 19-Dec-08 http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update Market Insider: The Week Ahead... http://www.cnbc.com/id/28318396 www.stock-market-lessons.com
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zigzagman		Posted: Saturday, December 27, 2008 4:14:43 PM
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 8/14/2008 Posts: 314 Location: Memphis		Weekly Recap - Week ending 26-Dec-08: http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update Week Ahead: Will Investors Get A New Year's Bounce? Posted By: Patti Domm Friday, 26 Dec 2008 http://www.cnbc.com/id/28381177 Stock investors enter the final week of the year battered and bruised, and any bounce in the next couple of days will do little to repair tattered portfolios. But the question is now whether there will be a January effect where stocks are lifted early in the year, even if temporarily. "The January effect is actually a low quality effect. You see it in the small caps. You see it in the low quality bonds. You see it in emerging markets around the world," said Richard Bernstein, chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch. "This happens more powerfully when following a year when they underperforms. You could have a pretty big January effect." But he also said it has nothing to do with fundamentals, and it could be short lived. Some traders are still holding out hope that a Santa rally will sweep stocks higher in the final week of the year, though there is no expectation that volume will improve until January. They also caution that a new round of hedge fund redemptions could pound the markets early in the year, dampening any January buying. "I really think the biggest indicator is the Treasury market. That is the absolute number one thing to watch," said Patrick Boyle of LaBranche Financial. "These big funds and investment banks and governments around the world are long U.S. Treasurys for liquidity purposes." As they roll out of Treasurys, he said money should flow into stocks. "If in the first couple days of January, Treasurys continue to look strong and people still hate the market, look out below," he said. On the economic front, markets have few data points to watch in the coming week. Consumer confidence for December is reported Tuesday, as is Chicago purchasing managers data and the S&P/Case Shiller home price index. On Friday, ISM manufacturing data is reported. Starting Friday, hundreds of economists, and some Fed officials, convene in San Francisco for the annual American Economic Association convention, which runs through Jan. 5th. Stocks are closed New Year's Day, but trade in normal sessions on New Year's Eve and again on Friday. New Year Optimism?: Bernstein said there are some signs of improvement in terms of the stock market, but he remains very cautious. "In the last four months, what's happened is the market has been sucked back to fair value. I wouldn't say the market is demonstrably undervalued, but clearly valuations have dropped a lot. (Earnings) estimate revisions, which we use as a contrary signal, are showing analysts are finally capitulating," said Bernstein. "Last month for the first time in 10 years, people are paying a premium for low beta stocks," he said, adding that was another positive. He said now stocks like utilities and consumer staples, more steady performers, are being valued for their reliability. But there are still plenty of hurdles for stocks. "I still think equity investors have no conception of what's going on in the fixed income markets, or what's not going on," he said. "Rates are coming down so that's good, but to some extent rates are lower, spreads are still pretty wide." Bernstein said he watches weekly jobless claims closely, and he does not agree with the conventional wisdom that jobs data is a lagging indicator. "If employment continues to deteriorate, it makes no difference what happens to rates because nobody's going to qualify," he said. Jobless claims, reported on Christmas Eve, were at a 26-year high. "In my mind, you will know we have a real solution to the problem when they begin to facilitate consolidation in the financial sector," he said. "This is no different than Pittsburgh in the 1950s." He said the financials, like the steel industry, have to shut down operations and pare back workers because of slower demand. More mergers in the industry are necessary to resolve the issues of overcapacity. Econorama: Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joseph LaVorgna said the most important data in the coming week will be the S&P Case Shiller home price data. November existing home sales data, reported Wednesday, showed a steep decline of 13 percent in prices, the biggest drop on record. "Housing prices are collapsing at an accelerated pace. It's good only in that we'll get to a bottom faster," he said. "The decline in housing is very important. It hurts confidence. it hurts spending power," he said. LaVorgna said he expects the results of the holiday shopping season to be weak and there may be more anecdotal evidence of that in the coming week as retailers continue to slash prices in post holiday sales. He has expected fourth quarter GDP to come in at a negative 4.5 percent. For next year, he said the change in administrations in Washington may help sentiment. President-elect Barack Obama's promise of a large stimulus package early in his term may help the economy. He also said the "euphoria and optimism" about the new Administration, along with policy actions may create some traction. "Basically that could feed on itself a bit," he said. "I think as long as the unemployment rate drifts upward through the whole year, regardless of what fiscal plans are put in place, it's just going to keep a damper on things. I don't think you're going to see the economy come rip roaring out of this," he said. Bernstein also said fiscal stimulus should be a positive for the economy, but he said it may already be priced into the market. www.stock-market-lessons.com
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zigzagman		Posted: Monday, January 05, 2009 1:05:16 AM
Rank: Advanced Member Joined: 8/14/2008 Posts: 314 Location: Memphis		Weekly Recap - Week ending 02-Jan-09 http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/overview?u The Week Ahead: Market Hopes New Year Rally Will Last: Posted By: Patti Domm Wall Street hopes to continue Friday's rally into the first week of the new year after the Dow Jones Industrials closed above 9,000 for the first time in two months. Traders expect more money to be put back to work as investors tentatively shop for bargains in a market nearly 40 percent below the level it was at last year. For the holiday-shortened week, the Dow gained more than 500 points, or 6.1 percent, snapping a four-week losing streak. The S&P had the best weekly performance, up 6.76%, while the Nasdaq rose almost as much. In the coming year, markets need to see hope convert to confidence in order to sustain gains, and that will not be easy with an economy still a seeking bottom. The data calendar in the week ahead is expected to be another bleak look at a very poor fourth quarter. December employment on Friday is the big number to watch. Auto sales are reported Monday, and chain stores will release December sales on Thursday. Minutes from the Fed's last meeting will shed light on the Fed's view of the recession and outlook. "None of the major economic data have shown signs of a trough," said Miller Tabak's Tony Crescenzi. "I think for equities to improve, the economy has to stop showing signs of getting worse." He expects the unemployment rate to rise to 7 percent in December, and the decline in non farm payrolls should be between 400,000 and 500,000. Rescuing the economy will be a big topic in Washington in the coming week. The new Congress is sworn in Tuesday and gets to work Wednesday on a new fiscal stimulus package. Technology stocks may also be in the spotlight with two big events in the coming week. Mac World is Monday and Tuesday though Apple [AAPL 90.75 5.40 (+6.33%) ] CEO Steve Jobs will not attend. The Consumer Electronics Show, where the industry show cases its latest gadgets, begins Wednesday night in Las Vegas and runs through the weekend. Whither Stocks: The stock market could benefit in the coming week from "January effect." Traders have been encouraged by the decline in the Chicago Board of Options Exchange's Volatitliy Index, which has pulled back from record highs. "It's like all the players are suffering from post traumatic stress syndrome," said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "There's just this overwhelming impression that even if it gets better in '09, it's going to be a slow and arduous process." Paulsen said if history is a guide, the market's recovery from its depression era-like decline may not be as weak as some expect. "I looked at all of the panics since 1900 that were of this size—40 percent declines or more. There's been six of them...One of them of course was the Great Depression. It went down this much and went down this much again," he said. But as for the others, the market came back in the following year. "In five of the six panics of this magnitude, not only are they similar to what we experienced, but all of them recovered their losses within 18 months," he said. Paulsen said he thinks the market is more likely to follow a course similar to the periods after the rich man's panic in 1903, the panic of 1907 or the panicked collapse of the "nifty 50" blue chips in 1973/74 than the 90 percent decline of the Great Depression. "I'm going to go with a big move rather than a small move. I think something that falls this hard, this fast, recovers fast. I don't know if it will be next year, but I'm guessing it will be. The economy is free falling, but it's already being discounted," he said. Paulson expects the S&P 500 to reach 1200 to 1250 by the end of 2009. Paulsen said he favors beaten up industrials, technology, and consumer cyclicals. "If you're a risk asset - a cyclical stock, an investment grade bond or junk bond; a commodity -- what is there not to like? The stuff that scares me most is the safe haven stuff. Do you really sleep well at night and have a Treasury bill paying you zero?" he said. Many economists believe the third quarter will be a turning point for the economy. Paulsen said he thinks there will be a "V" recovery. "We're collapsing because of healthy players frozen by fear. The good news is because they're really healthy players, that if you just improve confidence, they could be a big factor by the second half. We're talking about a trillion dollar fiscal package next year," he said. "..If that happens, I think there's more a V than not in the economy...I think the stock market has a bit of a V itself." Econorama: There's a full calendar of economic news in the week ahead. On Monday, construction spending is reported. ISM non manufacturing data, pending home sales and factory orders are reported Tuesday. The Fed's minutes are released Tuesday afternoon. ADP's private sector employment report is released Wednesday morning, ahead of the government employment report Friday. Weekly jobless claims are issued Thursday as usual. Consumer credit is reported Thursday afternoon, and wholesale trade for November is reported Friday. Some interesting commentary may come from the American Economic Association annual meeting this weekend and Monday. The San Francisco event is expected to be attended by hundreds of economists, including a number of Fed officials. Scam of the Century The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing Monday on the Madoff fraud. http://www.cnbc.com/id/28453166 www.stock-market-lessons.com
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