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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 7/14/2008
Posts: 34
Location: California
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ziggie...i second stockman's comments..you are a very fine teacher..
Simple Living High Thinking
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 315
Location: Memphis
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wilfee@yahoo.com wrote:ziggie...i second stockman's comments..you are a very fine teacher.. Thank YOU! too...I appreciate that...zz
 www.stock-market-lessons.com
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 315
Location: Memphis
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TODAY WAS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS HOPING FOR!
THIS "MAY" REALLY BE "THE" BOTTOM...
It will be confirmed as the bottom the day the DOW closes above the green line on this chart.
Due to the short amount of time it took to form this Double Bottom chart pattern and the extreme volatility of the market these days, it may not be real. In order for it to work, it must move up quickly to take on the green line and close above it without dilly-dallying around. Since it formed so quick, it must yield quickly or else...The second confirmation of the Bull market will be when it closes above 9794.37 That will eliminate the potential for a Double Top to form.
This could turn from a potential Double Bottom (Bullish) into a real Double Top (Bearish) chart pattern in a very short amount of time, so BEWARE! I'll call it when I see it happen, as soon as I see it happen...
The weekly chart has improved dramatically over the one I posted yesterday just above this post.
Happy Trading,
zz
www.stock-market-lessons.com
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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Do you think today's 400 point gain was a great turn around? Maybe it was, but consider that the internals stank on today’s reversal. Down volume was 61% of total volume. Breadth was negative and 83% of all issues were declining. Be careful out there, because it is treacherous. We are at the top of the trading cycle that began forming last week where we should turn down in the next day or two. If Friday turns out to go much above the line as Zigzag just commented on, I will bail out of my etf's and for the second time in two weeks, I will have given up some nice gains. Now that I know this range and can buy low and sell high, mother market will go another direction. This is the hardest market to invest in because we are in 600 to 700 point ranges in a day every day and the last hour always seems to reverse. Just when you can feel the pattern, mother market kicks you in the stomach and does something else in mere minutes. You walk away from the computer and we are 200 points down and you look back and we are 200 points up. Are we in the Twilight Zone because I don't recognize where I am or what I am seeing?
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Rank: Newbie
Joined: 10/1/2008
Posts: 4
Location: CA USA
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Stockman and ZZ,
Crazy market indeed. Catipulation finally? Maybe. Lot's of deleveraging, Govt. interventions, emotions, etc... and therefore deem some of these indicators tougher to gauge. This market is like a severe case of bi polar. Longer term I have my doubts about a bottom being in place. We are coming off a 20 year bull market where credit, low interest rates and bubbles were the rule. If we settle down and go sideways for a few years, should present some interesting opportunities for having a tool like FINVIZ and seasoned community (such as yourselves) guidance to help find values. In particular, I would like more emphasis in finding these through stronger cash positions, higher dividends, and long term industry trends. Challenging markets also make opportunities IF the proper tools are at hand. Thanks for your contributions.
Deon
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 315
Location: Memphis
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It's important to remember that today was Options Expiration Friday, which always adds additional volatility into the closing bell. Because of this, the DOW reversed trend after lunch as it usually does. Before this reversal, the daily candlestick for today was a very bullish looking white candle with a lower wick. It's acceptable practice to disregard in part the final hours on a Friday like this. Now it's up to next Monday's action to determine the trend to come. In a way, it will be a "make it, or break it" kind of day.
The weekly chart's Technical Indicators are also mixed, with a slight bias towards the Bear. If Friday hadn't of been Options Expiration Friday, and the DOW had closed at the highs of the day at around 9280. this weekly chart would have ended up much more to the Bull than the Bear.
Happy Trading,
zz
www.stock-market-lessons.com
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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The S&P and the Nasdaq had a 5 year closing low today. Where did all those talking heads on CNBC go saying we had hit bottom a week or two ago and we were going higher? You didn't believe them, did you? What do I have to say to you to make you believe we are going lower? I post all those good articles in the news section giving you the facts. Go look at them near the top of the page under my name. Are you back? Do you think all of that is fiction. Don't you realize we are in the beginning of the biggest recession in 40 years. We are at the beginning. We are at the beginning and the profit estimates haven't been lowered on all your favorite stocks. It bothers me that I said in September we were going lower and I practically begged you to save your money for another day. It bothers me that everyone is calling their broker and asking for advice and they are being told to just relax because the market will come back and they can't get out now because they will miss the bull. Besides, they are being told, you've lost a lot and if you sell, it goes from paper to actual. Listen to what stockman is telling you:
We are going lower and you must preserve capital. All of that great expensive advise is close to worthless from your broker. I take no satisfaction in being right. I want you to be able to sleep at night as the prices go lower and allow you to come back after the market has settled. The plan is that we confirm the market has stabilized and we buy your favorite stocks at lower prices. Don't trust bonds because they are going down. You may be asking why I say all this. My broker told me last year all the usual niceties to stay in the market and I disagreed and told him to sell everything when the Dow was 13,000.I did invest in commodities in the spring, but got out as I was losing more than I was making in the summer.Please join me in CD's that are FDIC insured or interest or stable funds. I am not trying to brag or show off, I am just saying that I have been trying to build credibility with the 15,000 people that have read my posts on Finviz and I am telling you that we are going lower. You can wait for the next bear rally to get out, but please stop losing money. I can't tell you how badly it makes me feel.
Btw, the average gain of my bear etf's is around 80% for the month. Imagine the losses in the market while these have gone up that much. The problem is that when we hit bear bear rally, I get crushed, but today on a 500 point decline, I made 15%. I listed these previously in this section.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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The problem with this market is it dribbles lower rather than ending in a capitulation that makes everyone that can't take it anymore and makes them sell until all the sellers are gone. This weekend, you will read about the new closing lows and everyone will hope the bottom is soon and the bull market will be back. I have read that this little drop here and there could continue into next year as we go lower and lower. I received this in my mail this morning and I cut out the sales pitch and left the explanation so you could understand the concept better::
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Dear Stockman:
Last month, we warned you that this would be the blackest Black October in years. We begged you to get out of stocks. We pleaded with you to USE contrarian investments to pile up huge gains as stocks crashed.
Today, our warnings are coming true in spades. Asia sold off like crazy overnight: Hong Kong down 8.3%. Singapore down 8.3%. Japan down 9.6%. Seoul down 10.6%. India down 11%.
Next, Europe came apart at the seams: The UK down 7.5%. France down 7.9%. Germany down 9%. Austria down 9.3%.
And here in the U.S., futures were lock-limit down before the open, indicating a 500-point plunge at the open.
This is precisely what happened in 21 years ago: On Friday October, 16 1987, stocks cratered. Then the following Monday, stock markets around the world absolutely cratered. In a single session, the Dow 22.7% — in a session — the single largest point decline in history.
My forecast: This time, it will probably be worse. Investors who own double-inverse ETFs on the weakest market sectors will pile up windfall profits. Life-changing profits.
Inverse ETFs can give you that money. They can multiply your wealth. They can be a goldmine in these volatile times
And in this super-volatile environment, only inverse ETFs can make those kinds of gains possible — all in a regular brokerage account, even an IRA!
This summer, for instance — between May 15 and July 15 — inverse ETFs could have handed you gains of 30.9% ... 46.1% ... up to 106.7%.
Thanks to these inverse ETFs, you could have banked ...
A healthy 30.9% gain between June 5 and July 15 as the technology sector declined ...
An impressive 37.2% gain between June 5 and July 11 as the semiconductor sector fell ...
A tidy 37.7% gain between May 15 and July 15 as the consumer services sector dropped ...
A tasty 46.1% gain between June 5 and July 15 as the real estate sector plunged, and ...
A whopping 106.7% gain — more than a DOUBLE — between May 15 and July 15 as the financial sector cratered.
And more recently — as the markets became more volatile in September and October, these inverse ETFs could have handed you ...
A 49.6% gain in just 14 days as the semiconductor sector declined between October 1 and October 15 ...
A 61.0% gain in just 15 days as the technology sector fell between September 25 and October 10 ...
An 89.13% gain in just 19 days as the real estate sector dropped between September 26 and October 15 ...
An 89.6% gain in just 19 days as the consumer services sector plunged between September 26 and October 15, and ...
An 89.9% gain in just eight days as the financial sector cratered between October 1 and October 9!
Unfortunately, you can’t go back in time to grab those gains and neither can I. But it’s crucial to understand two things: First, in each case, your money would only have been at risk for a brief time, and second, over time, these kinds of short-term gains could easily multiply your money three times ... four times ... even five times over!
Double-Inverse ETFs:
The Best of All Possible Worlds
I love using exchange traded funds at a time like this. Of course, losses are always possible with any investment vehicle. But like mutual funds, ETFs spread your risk over a basket of stocks. And as with mutual funds, you can trade them in your regular brokerage account, online or offline. You can even put them in your IRA if you wish.
But that’s where the similarities end. UNlike mutual funds ...
You always know what your ETF owns. You can check online, anytime, 24/7.
ETFs are priced continuously through the trading day — so you always know precisely what your shares are worth ... and you can buy or sell your ETFs instantly ... at any time of the day.
Plus, INVERSE ETFs let you profit when a particular stock sector goes down. And best of all, double-inverse ETFs let you earn two dollars for every one dollar a stock sector falls!
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This is stockman again. I cut out the sales pitch and kept the explanations to help you understand how these work because I am not trying to sell you anything. I'm just telling you that I am making money and today, I made 6% on a -312 day on these and could've made 15% at market bottom before it turned up, but I am holding them long term because....... we are going lower. Notice how I always keep saying that an so far I have been right. If you are reading this section for the first time, you should read my warnings at the beginning of this section because you can double your gain or you can double your loss. Read the comments from me and the others that have contributed to this theme so you go in knowing the risks as well as the rewards.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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You can benefit in this market by going to etf's on Finviz. You can find by going to screener, click on industry and drop down the menu to etf's. Click on performance and then click the price percent gain for the month until they are green. You now have the biggest gain etfs starting with the biggest percent. The first page will show as of today, Sunday, 10/26, twenty of the best performing ones out of 819 etf's. They go from srs with a gain of 126% to ssg which is up 74%. You are looking at not only the best performing etf's, but also better than any group of twenty stocks in the world. If that doesn't make you drool, nothing will.
Here are some warnings for you:
-as you know, the market turns quickly and these etf's can be up 10% in the morning and turn down just as much in the afternoon.
-if I am right and the market continues lower , it may trade lower for only a few days or a week. The upside to the following rally will probably be large and fast
-if good economic news or the Fed makes an announcement that they are doing something dramatic, you will get smashed into the red. Remember what happened on 7/15 when financials and the market took off and all the shorts got massacred.
I suggest if you agree that there may be an opportunity here, you start with small dollars and you go in knowing you could lose 10% or more in a day.
I would be interested in anyone's opinion after you look at that screen. Some of these have been what I have been investing in for the last three months and not surprisingly, I am up, while the world has been down. I am not bragging. I am stating a fact and that is why I invited all of you to join me to share ideas.
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Rank: Member
Joined: 8/8/2008
Posts: 15
Location: hsy/pa
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Stockman, I have pulled up the charts on the ETf's, I cannot find the gains you are talking about, I put in etfs and monthly and 50 per cent is the most possible, and I come up with the highest of 13 per cent gain. Help, I know I'm blond and a newbie, but I love your posts, and trying hard to make money instead of lose it..... Moxie in Hershey
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