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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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Just going through the news and financial shows and there seems to be a dark cloud over us now and no one is talking about hitting the low point last week and going higher. This ridiculous talk about market going higher has been silenced. Everyone now understands except for the fools that we are in real trouble. Did anyone hear Paulson say he is changing TARP because things are getting worse? Why did the market sell off so precipitously in the last hour on Friday? Why did financials go down so much after receiving all the money? Anyone expecting a bear market rally next week? I don't see the talking heads on TV saying that. Why is there a cliff in front of me and why am I being pushed closer because I don't want to die. Is this a nightmare or is this really happening. Isn't there someone who can fix this and make it better?
The answer is this is a worldwide problem and we will soon have the Dow and S&P at new multi-year lows and that's why it seems like we are going lower. Anyone want to disagree?
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/24/2008
Posts: 52
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I'll not disagree. I hate feeling pessimistic, but reality is what it is.
Watch your investments bleed, but scoop the 5 figure trading days with the greed of a starving dog. Warrior trader (disciplined, focused, agile, and savage)
The "world" will cry out for a messiah....guaranteed.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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Fast Money tonight said if we hit the low again and we are within several hundred points away, it will keep going lower and eventually hit 6000. All my reading tonight said we are now over 700 points off Friday's high and certain technical levels are close to being violated. If you see us going lower in the next few days or weeks with momentum and volume, consider jumping on some bear etf's to richly profit from it, but be prepared to sell if we turn and go up again.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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Clearly the bear ears that I have been wearing have grown into a crown which makes me proud. I hope you were all in bear etf's today because it would not be a strong enough statement to say they made all holders a lot of money. One of my etf's today was SRS which went up 45 points which is 27%. If you are still long, how much pain will it take before you scream bear and I can't take it anymore. Come over to the other side, because it is warm here today on a very cold day.
Any thoughts on which way we go tomorrow.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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We are due for a rally, but they seem to be shorter and shorter in duration. Tuesday's lasted one hour at the end of the day and was swallowed up by mid-day today. If we rally early, it might be expedient to buy more bear etf near the top in preparation for a possible decline in the afternoon. I predict we will be at Dow 7000 before the end of the year.
Imo, you should weight your bias to down side of neutral because of the following question:
Do you feel that the market will go lower or higher from here?
I hope you have the biggest gain on Thursday that you have ever had and I hope that my gain is bigger than yours. I am leaning down.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 315
Location: Memphis
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I'm going to make a BOLD call for the Dow to hit 6500 in the near future.
It may spike down to nearly 6000 during a session, but close higher that day, much like it did on Oct. 10th. This may happen as early as next week, but that should be about as far down as it needs to go this year. That would put the RSI on the daily chart to sub 30, and Stochastics at the zero line and totally oversold where buyers will step in again in a big way.
The reason I say as early as next week is the Dow has lost about 1500 points in the last five trading sessions from roughly 9000 down to 7500 It closed today at 7552.29 which is 221 points below the intraday low set on October 10th, which calls for more downside. I figure it might only take a few more sessions to shed another 1000-1400 points before it finally sets a bottom. Maybe a REAL bottom this time.
Today's Volume matched the Oct. 10th Volume, but there's a big difference between these two days. On Oct. 10th, most of the Volume that day was to the Buy side. You can tell that from where it closed at 8451. It spiked down to 7773 and it was all Buyers after that to get it to close very close to where it opened. Today's biggest Volume all came in the last 45 minutes when it broke below the 7773 Oct. 10th support level. A lot of it was stop-loss Limit Orders going off by computerized trading, and the rest of it was Institutional program selling. There will be even more selling tomorrow from the people that can't watch the market all day, come home from work and see that the Dow breached below 7773.
There was a chance to avert this drop today, but Congress decided to screw it up again. I was watching an interview on CNBC with the President of the UAW and a reporter asked him if he had heard that Congress had reached a compromise agreement on the bailout of the big three US Automakers. He said he hadn't heard that yet, but he would look into it. The market started to rally hard, so I covered my Short positions. I continued to watch CNBC and it didn't take long for the full story to come out that the Senate had reached a compromise, but the House wasn't even going to consider a bailout until after the Thanksgiving holiday. Plus, the Automakers would first have to submit a new business plan before they would schedule a special session. I knew right then the 7773 support level on the Dow was going to fail, so I reentered my Shorts with even more shares than before.
There's no need to post a daily chart of the Dow. Every one of the Technical Indicators are pointing down sharply, and have a ways to go until they find their usual areas to bottom out at.
I'm going to Cover half of my Short positions when the RSI on the daily chart crosses down through the 30 line, and the other half when it starts to turn back up. I will be going Long when the RSI crosses back up through the 30 line again.
I've got the strangest feeling Friday is going to be an UP day because it's Options Expiration Friday, and those days are notoriously volatile and hard to figure out. But as long as the Dow cannot close above the 5 Day Moving Average, I will remain Short.
Happy Trading,
zz
 www.stock-market-lessons.com
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Rank: Newbie
Joined: 11/22/2008
Posts: 1
Location: VA
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Hi ZZ, Great Forum and a big knowledge base. I admire this knowledge contributions from all of you. After today's close I saw this divergence and thought to ask your opinion on this. http://i420.photobucket.com/albums/pp287/iomair/MCLELLAN_DIVERGENCE.jpgwhat do you say?
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 315
Location: Memphis
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Welcome! to Finviz.com 'Imran'...
Sorry, but I can't help you with that question because I've never studied up on or used the McClellan Oscillator.
I know a few chartists from my favorite forum that use it, but most chartists I know don't.
Happy Trading,
zz
www.stock-market-lessons.com
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 6/15/2008
Posts: 240
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There seems to be a wide difference of opinion right now depending on who you believe. We are either going to have a massive rally or we are at the edge of the cliff, ready to fall to new depths. There is no one that I trust saying we will meander around these levels for a while. Why are my hands sweating?
Treasury Secretary announcement rally impact on bull 3x etf's:
BGU 22.36 to 26.32
ERX 29.89 to 36.23
FAS 12.37 to 16.00
Tna 18.14 to 22.14
These changes were in the last hour and they could go down just as fast.
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Rank: Newbie
Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 5
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the major market index(XMI) since 10-13-2008 tried to rally several times. the bulls rally is followed by bearish rallies that were twice as long. if you look at the "bigger picture" using the 15 year monthly charts of all the major indexes, the downward trend is pretty strong and for the DOW hitting below 6500 will not be a surprise.
leverage.synergize.profitsynergeticstocks.com
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