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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/29/2008
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zigzagman wrote:j0sh1ngU wrote:great analysis. just a quick question for you zigzag. sort of pertains to Dow but not necessarily. anyways. when dow reaches its top i plan on going ultra shorts. however there is a few things i do not like about them/have questions. FXP broke through all its supports and it seems to be lagging behind others but its for this reason specifically that I like it. your thoughts. in addition i like skf, but its macd does not look great even when the stock looks poised for a rebound. everything else seems to look great when the stock turns around. looking at price target of 100-110 on it. your thoughts or comments. Vix seems to be getting really close for a sign to sell longs and enter shorts? thanks again. j0sh,
I'm not familiar at all with FXP. What a strange ETF, shorting the FTSE+Xinhua China 25. Yes, it broke support at $59.75 and the reason it may be lagging is it's already at the resistance level at the lower BBand which is just now starting to turn down a tiny bit. So it will be harder for it to go down quickly now.
SKF is another play I wouldn't touch. Why short the Financials now? They have been rallying hard lately with all the $$$ the Fed has been pumping into them. After this week's and last week's actions by the Fed, they all know they won't be allowed to fail. It would have been better to play a Long Financial ETF earlier this week.
I don't use the $VIX for Buy or Sell Signals anymore. It's not acting like it used to in years past, so I don't find it to be a predictable indicator anymore.
Happy Trading,
zz
thanks for the feedback. but it seems that $vix still is a great indicator as it is located the highs and lows. also i see an inverse H&S on the Dow. right should not made yet. and if you were to go with a ultrashort etfs @9600 what would you go with. SKF to me seems great but then again it hasnt traded with bailout of citigroup, but it also shows how weak financials are at this time. and the decrease in volume since the low has been a major concern for me with this rally. Happy Thanksgiving all. a tad late. ialso wasnt going to go into SKF til dow 9600 and vix is at 45
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Rank: Newbie
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What do you think, what is now good for trade, for invest?
What do you think about options?
Regards.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 8/14/2008
Posts: 315
Location: Memphis
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Quote:
thanks for the feedback. but it seems that $vix still is a great indicator as it is located the highs and lows. also i see an inverse H&S on the Dow. right should not made yet. and if you were to go with a ultrashort etfs @9600 what would you go with. SKF to me seems great but then again it hasnt traded with bailout of citigroup, but it also shows how weak financials are at this time. and the decrease in volume since the low has been a major concern for me with this rally. Happy Thanksgiving all. a tad late. ialso wasnt going to go into SKF til dow 9600 and vix is at 45
j0sh,
If you can use the $VIX to your advantage, more power to you...
It's mostly for Swing Trading, and I don't do that anymore in this super volatile market, so I don't pay attention to it these days.
If I was going to pick an UltraShort ETF, I'd stick with ones that follow the overall market, and not just one sector because it just seems easier to me.
I personally would short SSO, or go long on SDS if I thought the market was going to drop.
SSO has fast become my favorite Day Trading stock these days, and I have already had a few nice scores with it.
I hope you and yours had a happy T-day too!____________________________________________________________________________________ valen wrote:What do you think, what is now good for trade, for invest?
What do you think about options?
Regards. Hi! valen, and Welcome! to Finviz.com...
My favorite stocks to Day Trade are TSO and SSO (which is and ETF).
I don't "invest" these days because the market is too volatile.
Once this market starts to recover and go back up, there are some really good prices out there on some really great companies. You can pick just about anything and you might do well over a period of time.
I don't DO options, because I don't know one thing about them...
Happy Trading,
zz
 www.stock-market-lessons.com
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 8/14/2008
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Location: Memphis
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Both of these articles discuss what we need to watch for in the coming week:
Will Santa's Rally Be Naughty Or Nice?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27954307
Weekly Recap - Week ending 28-Nov-08
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/update
The Economic Calendar is fairly light this week.
The big one is November's Employment Situation due out Friday an hour before the opening bell:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
Another item that's causing 'uncertainty' for the market is the U.S. Automakers.
If some kind of resolution to this crisis is given in the next couple of weeks, that should give a boost to the market.
The Dow daily and weekly charts are mostly Bullish.
The almost 10% UP move it made last week was the biggest move the Dow has made in one week since 1932!
If the market rallies the first few days of this coming week,
the Dow may move on up to the upper Bollinger Band and meet heavy resistance there.
I have marked the support and resistance levels on the weekly chart.
Happy Trading,
zz
  The weekly chart is looking MUCH better for the Bulls than it did last week. 
www.stock-market-lessons.com
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I sure didn't expect the Dow to drop over 670 points today! Nothing on the charts suggested it was overbought or ready for a pullback after the great week we had last week. Except maybe that last week's rally was on extremely low volume so it wasn't all that convincing.
The Construction Spending and ISM numbers out this morning are probably part of the reason for today's drop.
Factory Activity, Construction Spending Fall Further:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27996765
Then there was this news release that added fuel to the selling pressure:
The US economy slipped into recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced Monday, marking the official begining of the economic downturn.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27999439
I just heard Art Cashin speak on CNBC, and he blames today's drop in part on the news out of China that their manufacturing output fell drastically lately. People are selling stocks and commodities like hotcakes today, and going into Treasuries in a flight to safety.
Last week the market shrugged off lots of bad economic data like it was already baked in. This week it isn't doing that, and Friday's 'Employment Situation' report we know is going to be more bad news. So much for the Dow heading up to the upper BBand on the daily chart anytime soon...
www.stock-market-lessons.com
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there was a trendline resistance against the dow. connect september 17, november 3rd, and november 30th highs. and you got yourself a resistance line and connect the lows during timeframe and you got descending triangle
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/24/2008
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these volatile periods make TA very risky and systems begin to lose their effectiveness. Great analysis, but world/domestic/fed events are somewhat unprecedented and fear is high. this is not necessarily history repeating.
Good luck using straight TA....oversold can become very oversold, can become severely oversold, can become obscenely oversold. All the while, trades are held with money management replaced by hope.
Careful out there...it is a day traders market unless you are loading up on perceived-value, long duration investments.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/24/2008
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j0sh1ngU wrote:there was a trendline resistance against the dow. connect september 17, november 3rd, and november 30th highs. and you got yourself a resistance line and connect the lows during timeframe and you got descending triangle Many descending triangles to play. Apply statistics of breakouts to your advantage and use money management for those somewhat easy to obtain stops.
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Any idea what tomorrow forecasts? Im leaning towards a wait and see forecast with a bearish intention
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j0sh1ngU wrote:Any idea what tomorrow forecasts? Im leaning towards a wait and see forecast with a bearish intention j0sh,
What happens tomorrow depends on what the 'Employment Situation' report comes in at.
This report details how many total jobs were lost in the month of November. It's due out at 8:30am ET:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
If you click on the "Consensus" tab for that report, you'll see they are only calling for 300,000 lost jobs in November and the unemployment rate of 6.7%. I've heard it could really come out as high as 350,000-400,000 jobs lost, and a rate closer to 7%. If we see numbers that high, this market is probably going to selloff in the pre-market session and we could see a huge down day tomorrow. If the number is right at 300,000 or even less, that might give us a reason to rally.
The hearings about the U.S. Automakers is another item of focus this week. I was watching the hearings today, and it wasn't going so well so the market started selling off late in the session. Bob Pisani and other commentators at CNBC attributed today's selloff in part to a lot of traders wanting to be OUT before the employment numbers hit the wires in the morning, and the uncertainty of what Congress will do with the Big 3 Automakers.
If they fail to rectify this situation, I see a huge selloff coming. If there is a good resolution to the crisis, that might give the market a reason for a big rally. We probably won't know the answer to the Automaker's bailout until next week sometime. I'm only guessing here, but I doubt if they will vote on this until next week, so we have to wait and see...
EDIT: A couple of hours after posting this, I found this article that says we might get some news on the Big 3 Bailout as soon as tomorrow:
Dems Give White House Ultimatum on Auto Bailout~
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/12/dems-give-bush.html
Happy Trading,
zz
www.stock-market-lessons.com
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